Get those buckets ready. Rain is forecast for the Cape!

And now for the good news – rain is forecast this weekend for the drought-ravaged Western Cape.

Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille warned this week that preparations were underway for “Day Zero”‚ when taps run dry in the Mother City.

But for residents facing ever-tightening water restrictions the approaching wet weather spell will be a welcome respite.

The South African Weather Service said on Friday that there was a 60% chance of intermittent rainfall for most parts of the province from Saturday.

“Rainfall is expected for the Western Cape on Saturday‚ clearing up by Wednesday‚” said forecaster Victoria Nurse.

Heavy rainfall was expected between Plettenberg Bay and Cape Agulhas‚ she said.

Weather SA tweeted: “Strong and gusty winds (65-75km/h) are expected in places over the Cape metropole and surrounding coastal areas between Table Bay and Hermanus from this afternoon (Friday)‚ subsiding early Sunday morning.”

Severe thunderstorms were forecast over the south-western parts of KwaZulu-Natal and northern parts of the Eastern Cape from as early as Friday afternoon.

Weather SA tweeted: “Severe thunderstorms over Umzimkhulu and Ntabankulu local municipalities‚ moving south-eastwards towards Mhlontlo LM.”

Extreme drought grips parts of South Africa

South Africa’s Cape Town, one of the world’s iconic tourist destinations, could run out of water by April as the city’s worst drought in a century risks forces residents to join queues for emergency rations.

After three years of unprecedented drought, parts of the city have less than 90 days’ supply of water in their reservoirs.

“Day Zero”, the date taps are due to run dry, has crept forward to April 22 as city authorities race to build desalination plants and drill boreholes.

Almost two million tourists flock to Cape Town every year, with travel and tourism accounting for an estimated 9 percent or 412 billion rand ($33bn) of South Africa’s economic output last year, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.

At a trial water collection site, similar to an estimated 200 the city may introduce, people queued to fill up their water bottles, limited to a maximum 25 litres of water per person, a day, officials said.

Cape Town’s mayoral committee member for water, Xanthea Limberg, said the dire situation was being worsened by some people ignoring a push for residents and visitors to use no more than 87 litres of water per person a day.

City officials say dam levels dipped below 30 percent in the first week of the new year, with only about 19.7 percent of that water considered usable. Residents will have to queue for water when dams reach 13.5 percent.

The impact of the drought has been exacerbated by the fact that Cape Town’s population has almost doubled over the past 20 years. Despite that, climatologists describe this as a “once in a millennium” event.

This lack of rain over a three year period would challenge even the best-planned water regulations. It could be a taste of things to come. Climate change researchers predict more frequent dry years and fewer wet years to come.

Are Afrikans schools to blame?

Paul Colditz

The recent court struggle over Overvaal High School and the EFF’s protest at the school on Wednesday have placed the spotlight squarely on language issues and admission of learners in public schools.

Gauteng politicians and officials were quick to attribute the crisis that inevitably arises each year at the beginning of the year when thousands of learners have not yet been admitted to schools, to the so-called refusal of Afrikaans schools to allow English learners to attend these schools. This reeks of opportunism.

Let’s look at the numbers.

There are 23 719 public schools in South Africa. Of these, only 2 484 schools use Afrikaans as language of instruction, either in single, dual or parallel medium. The single medium Afrikaans schools make up 1 279, or 5% of the total number of schools. If you also count the dual or parallel medium schools, 10% of the total number of schools in the country has Afrikaans as medium of instruction.

The table below shows the complete picture of the number and distribution of schools with Afrikaans as a language of instruction, with the numbers in brackets in column 2 indicating single medium schools. (In the third column, the numbers for 2016 are indicated because the information for 2017 has not been published yet).

Over the past 10 years (2006-2016) the number of learners in public schools in Gauteng increased by 348 118. On the assumption that each school should accommodate 1 000 learners, it would imply the construction of approximately 348 new schools.

In reality, the total number of schools in Gauteng in the corresponding 10 years has only increased by 85. This is clear evidence of complete lack of proper planning and poor leadership.

Add to that the fact that certain schools in the province are running empty as parents try to escape the misery of poor education for their children – then it is clear why there is so much pressure on the well-functioning schools.

This has nothing to do with language.

It has everything to do with quality of education and migration of parents and learners away from provinces and areas where the education is not of an acceptable standard to areas, particularly Gauteng and the Western Cape, where they believe their children will have a better education and future. Incidentally, in the Western Cape the increase in learner numbers over the same 10 year period is 113 810, whilst the number of schools has decreased by 2. In a province such as the Eastern Cape it is calculated that there are about 2 000 school too many.

It is also interesting to note the average enrolment of schools in the provinces. The table below is ample illustration of the extent to which individual schools in Gauteng and the Western Cape have to accommodate far more learners than schools in other provinces.

The problem with dysfunctional schools and consequently poor education is indeed massive. When almost 80% of grade 4 learners cannot read for meaning, when thousands of children drop out of school every year, or are deprived of proper education because education departments do not appoint temporary teachers to fill vacancies, or appoint principals and teachers, or do not pay subsidies to which schools are entitled because provincial budgets are exhausted, it is not Afrikaans schools or any other schools’ fault.

Functional schools are making every effort to reach out to disadvantaged communities and schools in the midst of their own overcrowded programs. This includes Afrikaans schools. However, there is little that any individual school can do to cope with or solve the massive systemic problems. The cause of these problems must be placed squarely before the door of the state.

We live in a country where language, language rights, identity and culture, race and similar issues inevitably raise emotions and even rage. The placement of 55 learners who prefer English instruction in an Afrikaans single medium school which is already full creates the ideal opportunity to induce chaos and divert the attention from the actual problems facing millions of learners in the country on a daily basis.

Panyaza Lesufi, outspoken MEC for Education in Gauteng, is always very quick to play the race card. Our children must “play, dance and go to school together”, he says. What he doesn’t seem to know is that this has been happening for a long time, also in Afrikaans schools.

There is, to the best of my knowledge, no public school in South Africa that is exclusively white or wants to be such. In fact, the majority of Afrikaans schools in South Africa are not so-called “white” schools.

It is excellent leadership by school governing bodies and principals who lead their communities to accept responsibility for their schools themselves that results in excellence and functionality. Functional schools do so in spite of, and not due to, the presence of the education department.

School communities have the opportunity to choose leaders this year to promote the best interests of their schools and children. The triennial election of governing bodies takes place countrywide in March. It is vital that every parent takes part in this process.

SA lawyers demand $130m refund from firms

South African prosecutors have called for two consultancy firms to repay $130 million (£94.4 million) they earned from the state power company, Eskom.

McKinsey, and a local firm called Trillian, were paid the sum in 2016 for giving advice. Trillian was controlled by the Gupta family, whose closeness to President Jacob Zuma led to corruption charges. Both the Guptas and Mr Zuma, who has said he will set up an inquiry into the family, deny any wrongdoing. Officials are investigating whether McKinsey allowed money from Eskom to go to Trillian as a way of winning the consultancy contract. McKinsey, which has lost clients over the scandal, said it stopped working with Trillian once it realised its connection to the Guptas. The global firm has also said it is happy to return the money it earned in the deal. McKinsey, which admitted in October it “made several errors of judgement”, also maintains it gave no money to Trillian.

Last month, a South African court gave prosecutors permission to freeze the $130 million (£94.4 million) relating to the Eskom contract. This is the latest in a series of corruption news stories concerning Mr Zuma and the Guptas. The powerful family is accused of “state capture”, chiefly that it used its ties to gain government influence and lucrative state contracts. This is one of the first times the government has taken action against the Gupta family. The broader context here is that President Zuma’s political authority is fading as the governing ANC seems poised to remove him from office, says BBC Africa correspondent Andrew Harding. The move against McKinsey may well be just the start – as emboldened prosecutors start to target figures who, for years, seemed to many to be untouchable, our correspondent adds.

Zuma’s fee free plan may cause chaos at SA’s universities

President Jacob Zuma’s move to scrap tuition fees for students from poor South African homes and freeze tariffs for those from working-class households may cause chaos during registration at public universities this month.

Zuma unveiled the plan on December 16, two days before Cyril Ramaphosa replaced him as leader of the ruling African National Congress and two days after a body representing the 26 state-owned institutions said each would raise fees by 8%. The University of South Africa, the country’s biggest with more than 400 000 students, held fees at 2017 rates, it said on December 7.

On January 1, the universities said they won’t allow walk-in applications from people who qualify for free education, but people should instead submit details online for assessment. A day later, the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters party condemned the move and called on all academically deserving students to report to universities of their choice for registration.

“Zuma’s announcement on free tertiary education is very much a political project and it puts a lot of pressure on the new ANC National Executive Committee,” Joleen Steyn-Kotze, a senior research specialist at the Human Sciences Research Council, said by phone. “It is possible that there will be chaos and universities are going to be on high alert.”

Earlier protests

Weeks of violent protests at universities across the country in 2015 and 2016 delayed the end of those academic years, and institutions’ finances were stretched by the state’s decision to limit tuition costs in 2016.

Africa’s most-industrialised economy is contending with a skills shortage and a 28% jobless rate. Investors are concerned that the fee proposal, which ignores fiscal targets set in the budget, will add to government debt and hasten another rating downgrade to junk for the country’s local-currency credit.

Under the plan that will be phased over five years starting in 2018, students from homes where the combined annual income is R350 000 ($28 400) or less annually won’t have to pay for tuition, books, meals, accommodation and transport.

The directive also froze fees for students from households earning R600 000 or less per year. The National Student Financial Aid Scheme, which provided assistance to about 226 000 university students whose family income was below R122 000 annually in 2016, will assess applications from prospective students who didn’t previously qualify for financial aid but who now do, Chief Executive Officer Steven Zwane said on Thursday in Pretoria.

NSFAS disbursed R12.4bn in financial aid to almost 482 000 students at universities and technical-vocational colleges in 2016, according to its annual report. Under the new plan, all those who are funding their studies through the organisation will have their loans converted to grants.

Funding allocation

The National Treasury allocated R76.7bn to higher education for the year through March 2018, and estimates this will increase by an average of 8.2% in each of the following three years, the fastest-growing spending item after debt-service costs, it said in the mid-term budget in October.

South Africa will increase subsidies to universities to 1% of gross domestic product from 0.7% now over the next five years, according to Zuma’s December 16 statement. The National Treasury will outline how the government will fund free higher education “in a fiscally sustainable manner” in the February 21 budget, Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba said after the presidency’s announcement.

“We can easily afford it if we cut out the amount of government money that is currently being wasted on corruption and state capture,” Azar Jammine, the chief economist at Econometrix, said by phone.

“Under the current circumstances there is too much pressure on the fiscus to afford the new measure.”

Ramaphosa promises to target investment, corruption

South Africa wants to attract foreign investors to help it kick-start economic growth and will crack down on corruption, the new leader of the ruling African National Congress said on Saturday.

Cyril Ramaphosa, who narrowly won the race to succeed President Jacob Zuma as ANC leader last month, also used a speech to mark 106 years since the founding of Africa’s oldest liberation movement to call for party unity after a bitter leadership contest.

South Africa’s economy has slowed to a near-standstill over Zuma’s two presidential terms, as allegations of influence-peddling in government and mismanagement of state-owned enterprises have dented consumer and business confidence.

But Ramaphosa’s election win has injected a sense of optimism that the ANC, which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, could win back the trust of voters and investors disillusioned with Zuma’s rule.

Ramaphosa, 65, a former trade union leader and one of the country’s wealthiest businessmen, pledged during his campaign for ANC leader to address record unemployment and a sluggish economy.

“South Africa is open for investment,” he told tens of thousands of cheering ANC members in a stadium in the Eastern Cape province on Saturday. Through foreign investment “we can grow our economy, create jobs, end poverty,” he said.

“We must have an economy that offers policy certainty and addresses areas that inhibit investment, growth as well as social inclusion.”

Ramaphosa reassured investors that the role, mandate and independence of the central bank would be maintained while plans for free higher education for the poor would be implemented gradually so as to safeguard public finances.

The ANC needs to follow the example of liberation hero Nelson Mandela to unite the country and combat the racial inequalities that persist to this day, he added.

Ramaphosa faces a difficult balancing act as he must accommodate the competing interests of rival ANC factions vying for control of the party. One faction backed his bid for ANC leader, while another favoured Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a former cabinet minister and ex-wife of Zuma.

ZUMA’S FUTURE

There has been widespread speculation that Ramaphosa and his allies are lobbying ANC members to oust Zuma as head of state in the coming weeks, but he made no mention of Zuma’s future.

Zuma, 75, sat alongside Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta to hear Ramaphosa speak and was booed on several occasions during Saturday’s anniversary celebrations.

Zuma’s second presidential term doesn’t officially end until 2019 when national elections will be held, but he could be removed early through a motion of no confidence in parliament or at a meeting of the ANC’s national executive committee.

Ramaphosa welcomed Zuma’s recent announcement that there would be an inquiry into influence-peddling in government and said it was a top priority for those responsible to be prosecuted.

Zuma has denied allegations that he has allowed his friends to influence the appointment of ministers. Ramaphosa said that corruption in the private sector was also an important issue.

ANC member Vanita Kok, from the Khoisan royal house, said Ramaphosa’s message struck a chord because “corruption is rife”.

While markets have rallied since Ramaphosa’s victory, some analysts are sceptical he will deliver on his bold promises.

Gwen Ngwenya, an economist at South Africa’s Institute of Race Relations, said: “Ramaphosa is hamstrung by the need to ensure unity, and this will result in confused policymaking.”

Reuters

Solar steam powers homes – and new jobs – in South Africa

The power plants are part of SA’s push to cut its climate changing emissions by 2030.

South Africa may still get most of its energy from coal, but in the country’s sunny Northern Cape province, a different electricity source is taking hold: solar steam.

A Spanish renewable energy company has opened three thermal solar plants – which use the sun’s heat to create electricity – in the province.

The plants – which use sun-heated salt to drive turbines – produce enough electricity to provide power to just short of a million people, or almost the province’s entire population, according its operators.

That represents an important shift in a country that suffered power shortages as recently as 2015, but that now has excess power to sell to neighbouring southern African countries.

Just as important, the plants have provided new jobs in a province with one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the country, at more than 40%, according to U.N. officials.

They recognised the clean-energy project at climate change talks in Bonn in November as a creative model for bringing scarce private cash into renewable energy projects in Africa.

The first solar steam plant – KaXu Solar One, opened in 2015 in Pofadder – provided about 80 new permanent jobs, and about 1 700 temporary jobs, according to Sarah Marchildon, a spokeswoman for the UN climate change secretariat’s Momentum for Change initiative.

The other two plants, including Xina Solar One, completed last year in Uppington, on the banks of the Orange River, have created another 45 permanent and 1 300 temporary jobs, she said.

“The region is now benefiting from stable, clean energy, and we are happy to have played a role in helping to solve South Africa’s electricity needs and improving the nation’s sustainability and energy security,” said Gerardo Rodriguez Pagano, the general director of Abengoa South Africa, which developed the plants.

More power, fewer emissions

The power plants – jointly owned by Abengoa Solar, the government’s Industrial Development Corporation and a community trust – are part of South Africa’s push to cut its climate changing emissions by 2030, in line with its promises under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

In 2011, the government announced plans for 28 renewable energy projects around the country.

The solar thermal technology is generally a more expensive way to produce clean energy than traditional wind or solar-panel energy, said Kruskaia Sierra-Escalante, a finance manager with the International Finance Corporation, a World Bank group organisation that provided part of the funding for the project.

But it produces a more stable and predictable supply of power as sun-tracking mirrors concentrate the sun’s rays to heat salt, which is then used to produce steam that powers turbines to produce electricity.

Energy can be stored both in molten salt and as electricity in batteries, something crucial to building a reliable power grid, Sierra-Escalante said.

Because both wind turbines and solar panels provide energy only when the wind blows or the sun shines, clean power sources that can provide energy at other times – such as solar thermal technology that stores heat – are considered key to stabilising clean power grids, experts say.

The World Bank came under huge criticism in 2010 when it agreed to provide a $3 billion loan to help South Africa build Medupi, one of the world’s largest coal-fired power plants, as world leaders were trying to seal a global deal to curb climate change.

The World Bank has since agreed, in 2013, that it would finance coal plants only in unusual circumstances, when there are no reasonable alternatives to meet basic energy needs.

More cash for clean energy

The solar project, with its mix of public and private finance, is seen as a model for helping boost large-scale clean energy projects in Africa.

“By involving private sector funds to begin operating in an emerging market, the KaXu Solar One project is an innovative and transformative financial solution that addresses climate change,” Marchildon said.

“Leveraging private sector finance has proven to be a major obstacle for the funding of renewable energy projects in emerging economies,” she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Up-front costs to build large-scale solar plants are significant, and international investors can be hesitant to jump into developing markets, she said.

But solar projects, once put in place, have lower operating costs, she said, which can be a draw for investors.

“KaXu has helped to unlock the South African concentrated solar power plant market, attract financiers, and drive down costs,” Marchildon said.

It is now “the first operational private-sector utility-scale concentrated solar power plant project in South Africa – and in the developing world,” she said.

Pagano, of Abengoa South Africa, said the Northern Cape’s sunny conditions – the best in the country – were the reason to put the first solar thermal plants there, but the company would be open to looking at replicating the plants in other areas of South Africa.

Will Cape Town be the first city to run out of water?

Cape Town, home to Table Mountain, African penguins, sunshine and sea, is a world-renowned tourist destination. But it could also become famous for being the first major city in the world to run out of water.

Most recent projections suggest that its water could run out as early as March. The crisis has been caused by three years of very low rainfall, coupled with increasing consumption by a growing population.

The local government is racing to address the situation, with desalination plants to make sea water drinkable, groundwater collection projects, and water recycling programmes.

Meanwhile Cape Town’s four million residents are being urged to conserve water and use no more than 87 litres (19 gallons) a day. Car washing and filling up swimming pools has been banned. And the visiting Indian cricket team were told to limit their post-match showers to two minutes.

uch water-related problems are not confined to Cape Town, of course.

Nearly 850 million people globally lack access to safe drinking water, says the World Health Organisation, and droughts are increasing.

So it seems incredible that we still waste so much of this essential natural resource. In developing and emerging countries, up to 80% of water is lost through leakages, according to German environmental consultancy GIZ. Even in some areas of the US, up to 50% of water trickles away due to ageing infrastructure.

A growing number of technology companies are focusing their work on water management – applying “smart” solutions to water challenges.

Youth should not only chase tenders

Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba has urged South African youth to make the most of the state’s Black Industrialists Programme, and come up with innovative business ideas instead of chasing tenders and shareholdings at established companies.

Gigaba was speaking to the SABC on the sidelines of the Progressive Youth in Business breakfast in the Eastern Cape on Thursday, ahead of the ANC’s birthday celebrations to be held this weekend in East London.

He also highlighted government’s role in helping SA youth access markets. SA has one of the world’s highest rates of youth unemployment.

According to StatsSA’s quarterly labour force survey for the third quarter of 2017, youth unemployment stands at 38.6%.

“We want young people to become innovators and entrepreneurs, to come up with fresh ideas and take advantage of the Black Industrialists Programme,” he said.

The Black Industrialists Programme was launched in 2016 and is driven by the Department of Trade and Industry (dti) to promote a more inclusive economy by increasing black ownership of industrial enterprises.

Government has been making an effort to remove barriers to entry for the youth, but they have to “organise” themselves and identify sectors they want to be involved in, said the finance minister.

“[They should] not only focus on seeking tenders in government and seeking shareholding in existing companies,” he added.

“Young people are the group in society which can provide more long term and sustainable entrepreneurial activity than you can get from older people close to retirement, trying to make a retirement package as quickly as possible and least likely to embark on more long-term sustainable endeavours,” said Gigaba.

Some initiatives by Treasury to support SMMEs include undertaking public procurement legislation reform and ringfencing sectors in the economy for participation by black people, he explained.

Further, the dti also provides funding for SMMEs through the Black Industrialists Programme, and the private sector, particularly the CEO Initiative, has established a R1.5bn SME fund to support growth and development of small businesses.

De Lille: This is an attack for power and position

Patricia de Lille has hit back at those calling for her removal as mayor, saying their actions do not represent the City of Cape Town, and show they are pushing to get rid of her to replace her with a party member of their choice. On Wednesday it emerged that the DA’s Western Cape executive wants De Lille removed. This comes as De Lille has found herself at the centre of a political storm, facing several allegations levelled at her by senior colleagues.
On Wednesday De Lille said the move by the DA’s regional executive “does not represent the City of Cape Town DA caucus, because they never met”.
‘No mandate’
“Secondly after this statement by (DA Western Cape metro chairperson) Grant Twigg was issued I received numerous calls from members from various the branches of the DA saying that they have never been consulted on this statement by the regional executive nor have they given them the mandate.” She said the regional executive was meant to represent DA branches as well as members. De Lille said the regional executive needed to provide proof of when they had met the branches and what mandate they had received from the branches. “They can do this by providing a list of the meetings which took place when branches took decisions,” she said.
‘Rush to get rid of De Lille’
De Lille said the regional executive was confused about its role. “This is yet another example of the flagrant disregard for process within the DA in their rush to get rid of me and make (DA Western Cape leader) Minister Bonginkosi Madikizela the next Executive Mayor,” she said. “It illustrates my previous position that these attacks on me have been about power and positions all along.”
De Lille’s conduct in focus this weekend
De Lille’s conduct will also be examined this weekend when the DA’s Federal Executive meets to discuss reasons she previously provided as to why she should not resign as mayor. De Lille’s response relates to a report on findings by what has become known as the “Steenhuisen commission”.  A subcommittee, headed by parliamentary whip John Steenhuisen, was previously established by the DA’s federal executive to look into political management in the City of Cape Town. It is understood several allegations were made against De Lille.
Confidential report
Allegations against De Lille are also contained in a report by independent investigators from Bowman Gilfillan Attorneys. This report, dated December 29, detailed a list of allegations against, and made by, several senior City officials. De Lille was seeking legal advice on the independent report, as she said on Friday there were factual errors in it. She said these were not corrected, even though she had pointed out the errors. The report found that De Lille may be guilty of gross misconduct for allegedly advising City manager Achmat Ebrahim that he need not report to the City council an allegation of misconduct against Melissa Whitehead, the commissioner of the transport and urban development authority.
This related to alleged irregularities involving payments to Volvo for bus chassis. The Bowman Gilfillan report said a forensic report presented prima facie evidence that “the Commissioner (Whitehead) was involved in irregular expenditure in relation to payments in the aggregate amount of R43 801 807.06 made to Volvo for 29 bus chassis”.  It also found that payments totalling R29 584 368 made to Scania for 24 bus chassis during June 2014 were irregular.

Populism or the South African economy

 

The biggest challenge facing South Africa’s incoming president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is not his hostile party manager, Ace Magashule, the resentful nationalists in KwaZulu-Natal, or the new ANC NEC.
It is the ANC’s newly found populism.
The poisoned chalice that Jacob Zuma had prepared for his successor means Ramaphosa would have to dance a delicate dance around issues like land expropriation and free tertiary education, without avoiding the tough steps demanded if the country’s economy is going to be stable and growing.
It’s a stark choice: join the populist chorus and be popular now, but within a year or two face the music of a collapsed economy, increasing unemployment and poverty, and possible public revolt.
The way out for Ramaphosa is to talk the populist talk, but quietly do the right things.
Like he did in Nongoma at the weekend, talking about the Garden of Eden that expropriation of land without compensation could bring – and then adding the caveat: If it leads to higher food production, if it doesn’t harm the agriculture sector or food production.
The ANC has largely avoided cheap political populism since it became the governing party, apart from occasionally allowing its Youth League to make wild statements.
But then Julius Malema arrived on the scene and refused to be controlled by Luthuli House, and populism gradually became mainstream politics.
That was the fertile ground the Zuma/Gupta axis – ably assisted by British PR firm Bell Pottinger – capitalised on, introducing the mantras of #WhiteMonopolyCapital and radical economic transformation into the national discourse.
These concepts have since been used as a machete to attack the constitutionalists and economic realists in the Ramaphosa camp.
Populism is a phenomenon that is researched widely in the world nowadays.
In his recent book, What is Populism?, Princeton University professor Jan-Werner Muller says that a rejection of pluralism is at populism’s core. Populists declare themselves to be the only legitimate representatives of the masses and divide the nation into two: the masses and the exploiting elite. Populists propose simplistic solutions for complex social and economic problems; they are strong on rhetoric and weak on policy.
In the case of Zuma, the Guptas and Co populism is actually just a cover for state capture, corruption and maladministration; an exercise to seek a scapegoat for the lack of development and the failure to provide better lives to ordinary people.
It is an effort to cover up the reality of many billions of rands stolen or misspent, billions that should have gone to development, and to obscure the terrible decisions that had led to economic downgrades and a weak rand.
The scapegoat is white business and the white minority generally, and of course those who are labelled as protectors of white privilege.
Zuma’s reckless, unilateral decree on free tertiary education on the eve of the ANC’s elective conference last month is an example of cheap populism. As is the EFF’s encouragement for prospective students to arrive at universities in their tens of thousands.
The way in which the land debate at the conference was steamrollered late at night, when everyone was exhausted and that ended up in a decision to change a key clause in the Constitution’s Bill of Rights, is another.
It was a bit like Brexit: a one-time referendum among ill-informed citizens decided by a simple majority that ended up changing the course of history.
Ramaphosa and people in the ANC who think like him were fiercely against expropriation without compensation, and argued quite rightly that the existing clauses in the Constitution allowing expropriation under certain conditions have never been used or tested.
Moreover, it is common cause that the state hasn’t shown the capacity to establish farmers on land already acquired for redistribution.
All these arguments were spelled out in detail in Kgalema Motlanthe’s voluminous Report of the High Panel on the Assessment of Key Legislation and the Acceleration of Fundamental Change, issued two months ago.
Ramaphosa cannot ignore the ANC resolution, so he would probably try to ameliorate its potentially catastrophic impact by slowing down the process and making sure the eventual amendment is very carefully worded.
This will not be popular. Neither would cutting state expenditure, another necessary step.
The populist genie has escaped from the bottle and it will be hard to put it back.
Ramaphosa’s task is to bring the reality home to his party that the only way real radical economic transformation that benefits more than a few can be achieved, is if the economy expands.
The uncomfortable truth that the populists will have to digest, is that the South African economy’s strength above most others on the continent is that it is part of the global economy. If government acts as if it isn’t, the economy will suffer, as we have seen several times during Zuma’s tenure.
Ramaphosa’s advantage is that his support as a national leader is much wider than is reflected by the narrow margin with which he won against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma at the ANC’s elections.
Even more importantly, even his enemies in the ANC have to admit that the ANC’s best chance of doing well during next year’s general election would be under Ramaphosa’s leadership.

Manyi’s PPF: We are not funded by the Guptas

 

In a previous version of this story, Fin24 referred to Siphile Buthelezi, secretary general of PPF. Buthelezi alerted Fin24 to the fact that he has resigned from this role.
Cape Town – The Progressive Professional Forum (PPF) “is not owned or funded in any way illegally, or legally or clandestinely by the Gupta family”, it said in a statement on Monday.
PPF president Mzwanele “Jimmy” Manyi, who is a former ANC spin doctor, is also head of policy at the Black Business Council (BBC) and leads the Decolonisation Foundation.
These organisations are spearheading a drive to tackle a lack of economic transformation in South Africa and the BBC gave a presentation last week at Parliament’s hearings into the banking sector’s progress on the topic.
However, the source of their funding has come under the spotlight, with Democratic Alliance MP David Maynier seeking information from state-owned entities and departments to see who is funding the organisations.
So far, parliamentary responses to Maynier’s questions by Public Enterprises Minister Lynne Brown and Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies revealed that government has been funding the PPF and BBC.
Brown revealed that Eskom and Transnet sponsored the PPF with R840 000 in donations, while Davies disclosed that the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) gave the BBC R7m over the past three years.
Regarding the BBC donation, Maynier said in a statement that “it looks like the DTI is funding a dodgy Treasury opponent and Gupta proxy”.
Concerning the PPF donation, Maynier said Eskom and Transnet should not support an organisation “which is deeply involved in politics and which campaigns against the Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan and National Treasury”.
Groups to sue over Gupta proxy allegations
The three Manyi-linked organisations – as well as former Economic Freedom Front MP Andile Mngxitama’s Black First, Land First organisation – have also been accused of being proxies for the Guptas.
This allegation was criticised by the PPF on Monday. “PPF is not a proxy for anyone but it is and steadfastly remains the vanguard of the interests of all South Africans, in particular the progressive professionals,” said the office of the secretary general of PPF.
It was announcing the PPF’s decision to sue Daily Maverick journalist Marianne Thamm for a story on March 17 2017 entitled Tom Moyane, Zuma Kingpin, because she referred to the PPF as “Mzwanele Manyi’s Gupta-sponsored Progressive Professionals Forum”.
The PPF said Thamm’s “labelling is meant to create an impression in the mind of the reader that PPF is sponsored, financially or otherwise by the Gupta family”.
The organisations often refer to “white monopoly capital” or “radical economic transformation” when discussing the topic of transformation.
Manyi tweeted on Sunday that he will be briefing his lawyers to also sue the Sunday Times, following its lead story this Sunday entitled ‘White monopoly capital’ chosen distraction in PR strategy to clear Guptas.
The story claimed that PR firm Bell Pottinger “either helped set up or funded two organisations, the Decolonisation Foundation and Andile Mngxitama’s Black First, Land First, that were critical of the Treasury and ‘white monopoly capital’.”
It said “Decolonisation Foundation head Mzwanele Manyi yesterday did not respond to questions, saying only that there was no direct link between himself, his foundation, Bell Pottinger or the Gupta family”.
Black First, Land First said on a website linked to Mngxitama that “it will report the Sunday Times to the Press Ombudsman,  take legal action against the Sunday Times and identify and occupy land owned by Johann Rupert”.
DA to continue funding probe
Meanwhile, Maynier said the DA is ramping up its investigation into the funding structures of the organisations. The party will be:
– probing whether public funds have been transferred by state departments, state-owned enterprises and public entities to the PPF, Decolonisation Foundation and the BBC;
– submitting requests, in term of the Promotion of Access to Information Act, for copies of the sponsorship policies employed by Eskom and Transnet; and
– requesting Auditor General Kimi Makwetu to investigate the sponsorships received from Eskom and Transnet.
Transport Department has not funded Manyi-linked groups
Transport Minister Dipuo Peters said the department has not funded or procured services from the PPF, BBC and Decolonisation Foundation in a parliamentary response issued on Monday.

There’s another royal baby on the way!

 

The Queen’s granddaughter Zara Tindall and husband Mike Tindall are expecting their second child!
A Buckingham Palace spokesperson recently revealed the exciting news but according to The Mirror, has given no further information.
The pregnancy comes one year after the couple tragically lost their second child in December 2016, just weeks after Zara (36) announced her pregnancy.
The baby would have been the Queen and Prince Philip’s sixth great-grandchild. The pair has a three-year-old daughter named Mia.
The happy news comes just after the couple celebrated Christmas in Australia with little Mia.
Former rugby player Mike (39) once said that Mia gave them the strength to get over the miscarriage.
“One thing you do learn is how many other people have to go through the same thing. The biggest thing you can have is an outpouring of support. Social media was a good thing for once,” reports The Mirror.
The Queen and the royal family are “very pleased” to hear the couple’s news, reports Metro UK,

5 important things happening in South Africa today

 

• Minutes from a recent Eskom meeting show that the Gupta-owned Tegeta mining group is threatening to cut coal supply to the power utility, just as it was discovered that thousands of tons of coal have gone missing. Tegeta is demanding that Eskom pay more for its coal, meanwhile, Eskom is threatening legal action.

• National treasury is working on introducing strict new conditions for its guarantees to state-owned companies. Ratings agencies highlighted guarantees being dished out by government as one of the biggest risks on SA’s books. One of the restrictions will be a limit on how big the guarantee can be, and another is to force re-application rather than simply rolling over.

• Transport Minister Joe Maswanganyi says there is no way that over R9.2 billion worth of e-toll debt owed by motorists will be written off. He said that any decision to do so would have to be done at cabinet level, and there was no intention to do so. The e-toll default bill is increasing by R230 million every month.

• Naspers CEO Bob van Dijk says that the accusation leveled against Multichoice, around apparent kickbacks paid to the SABC to influence TV laws, is Multichoice’s problem, not Naspers’. He said Multichoice is one of 100 companies under the Naspers umbrella, and needs to deal with its own problems.

• South Africa’s rand steadied against the dollar on Tuesday, holding near a five-week high touched in the previous session after the country avoided a double downgrade of its local currency debt. On Thursday, the rand was trading at R13.66 to the dollar, R18.40 to the pound and R16.21 to the euro.

65 000 people applying for 1 500 JMPD jobs ‘shows desperation’

 

The fact that 65 000 people applied for 1 500 Johannesburg Metropolitan Police Department (JMPD) trainee positions shows the youth are desperate for decent jobs, the Inkatha Freedom Party said on Wednesday.
Unemployment figures would continue rising if government continued to ignore its responsibility toward South Africans, in particular the youth, national chairperson Blessed Gwala said in a statement.
Youth unemployment could result in crime and drug and alcohol abuse.
“Why are they being told that they are future leaders of the country while they languish in abject poverty and share a crowded house with their parents? It will be difficult, if not impossible for our youth to take on responsible positions if they are left without hope at this age,” Gwala said.
The IFP believed the private, government, and education sectors needed to collaborate to determine what knowledge and skills young people should be taught to find rewarding work.

Zuma announces free higher education for poor and working class students

 

President Jacob Zuma has announced that government will subsidise free higher education for poor and working class students.
He said in a statement on Saturday that the definition of poor and working class students will now refer to “currently enrolled TVET Colleges or university students from South African households with a combined annual income of up to R350 000” by the 2018 academic year.
The Higher Education Minister would revise this amount periodically in consultation with the Finance Minister.
“Having amended the definition of poor and working class students, government will now introduce fully subsidised free higher education and training for poor and working class South African undergraduate students, starting in 2018 with students in their first year of study at our public universities,” Zuma said.
“Students categorised as poor and working class, under the new definition, will be funded and supported through government grants not loans.”
This effectively means that Zuma has overruled the recommendations of the Heher Commission into the Feasibility of Fee-Free Higher Education and Training.
Zuma’s announcement comes on the day the ANC’s watershed 54th elective conference is expected to begin. A new leader of the party will be elected at the conference.
The Heher Commission had previously found that there is currently no capacity for the state to provide free tertiary education to all students.
The report recommended that undergraduate and postgraduate students studying at both public and private universities and colleges, regardless of their family background, should be funded through a cost-sharing model of government guaranteed “Income-Contingency Loans”, sourced from commercial banks.
The commission recommended that, through the model, commercial banks would issue government guaranteed loans to students.
Zuma released the Heher Commission report in November following media reports that he was preparing to announce a plan to introduce free tertiary education, which Morris Masutha, the apparent ex-boyfriend of his daughter, had allegedly devised.
Funding of post school education and training
In Saturday’s statement Zuma announced that education was an apex priority for government’s pro-poor policies, and committed to increase subsidies to universities from 0.68% to 1% of the GDP over the next five years, as recommended by the Heher Commission.
He said this was in line with comparable economies, in order to address the overall gross underfunding of the sector.
“This will be done in order to kick-start a skills revolution towards and in pursuit of the radical socio-economic transformation programme as outlined during the 2017 State of the Nation Address,” he said.
Public TVET Colleges
Zuma said that the provision of fully subsidised free education and training would be extended to all current and future poor and working class South African students at all public TVET (Technical Vocational Education and Training) colleges starting in 2018 and would be phased-in over a period of five years.
“All poor and working class South African students enrolled at public TVET Colleges will be funded through grants not loans,” he said.
Zuma said the full cost of study would include tuition fee, prescribed study material, meals, accommodation and/or transport.
He said government would further invest in the training and development of existing TVET staff as well as the recruitment of additional qualified staff to improve the quality of teaching and learning at TVET Colleges.
“Funds will also be directed towards the improvement of infrastructure in the TVET sector,” he said.
NSFAS
Zuma said National Student Financial Aid Scheme packages already allocated to existing NSFAS students in their further years of study will be converted from loans to 100% grants effective immediately.
He said this policy intervention would enable government to extend fully subsidized free higher education to youth from well over 90% of South African households.
Zuma said the matter of historic NSFAS debt, due to its complexity, would be dealt with by the Minister of Higher Education after due diligence has been undertaken by that department, the department of planning, monitoring and evaluation and the National Treasury to determine the quantum of funding required.
Student accommodation
Zuma said the construction of new student accommodation and refurbishment of old student housing at both universities and TVET colleges would be given urgent attention, with priority given to historically disadvantaged institutions.

South Africa President Zuma’s New Year message

 

President Jacob Zuma has called for renewed efforts to boost inclusive economic growth and improve the lives of poor and working-class South Africans.
In a statement released on Sunday, he touched on the country’s economic woes in 2017 and said improving the quality of life of the South African people, especially the poor and the working class, remained a key priority of the government.
“Significant strides” were made in 2017 in fighting poverty, inequality and unemployment, Zuma said, without addressing rising unemployment further.
“Despite serious challenges on the economic front, together we made substantial progress in providing basic services such as electricity, housing, roads, water and sanitation, healthcare, social grants, as well as accessible education.
He touched on free tertiary higher education for low- and middle-income families, but again failed to discuss how it would be funded.

South Africa – Economic forecast summary

Economic growth is projected to pick up moderately in 2018-19, as stronger activity in trading partners boosts exports. Investment will support growth in 2019 on the assumption that business confidence increases and policy uncertainty fades. Despite persistently high unemployment, private consumption will expand as wages increase moderately and food prices stabilise.
Falling inflation leaves room for a moderately expansionary monetary policy to support activity. Unexpected slippage of the budget deficit is contributing to growth in the short term, but is also creating more pressure to contain rising public debt and is raising the risk of a further credit downgrade. Improving the efficiency of public spending and better controlling the deficits of state-owned enterprises are necessary to raise fiscal credibility and create room for public investment to foster growth and reduce social inequality.
The high dependence on external financing is the main source of financial vulnerability. Low investor confidence and credit rating downgrades in 2017 have contributed to a net outflow of foreign investment. To cushion the transmission of external shocks to the financial system, implementation of the financial sector regulatory reform should be accelerated and foreign-currency-denominated debt issued by private entities further monitored.

South African Economy Submersion into Slowness

 

The SA economy has gone into recession, at the same time that it tries to absorb continued political shockwaves in the wake of GuptaLeaks and the recent cabinet reshuffle.
Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) announced on Wednesday, that the economy shrank by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2017.
This is the second consecutive quarter that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined following a 0.3% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2016.
Two consecutive quarters of negative growth is the most widely accepted definition of a recession, according to StatsSA and the last one experienced by the country followed on from the global financial crisis during 2008 and 2009.
Despite hopes that a recovery in the agriculture and mining sectors would save South Africa from a contraction – steep declines in a host of other sectors outweighed the potential gains.
The trade and manufacturing sectors “were the major heavyweights that stifled production, with trade falling by 5,9% and manufacturing by 3.7%” StatsSA said.
Meanwhile the electricity, gas and water industry contracted by 4.8%, according to the agency, due largely due to a decreases in electricity produced in the first quarter.
The amount of water distributed also decreased driven by continued restrictions in some parts of the country still recovering from the drought, is said.
The news comes after a late night cabinet reshuffle by Jacob Zuma, prompted ratings agencies to downgrade South Africa’s credit rating. Although agencies S&P Global and Fitch held off from further downgrades last week, the recession is unlikely to boost the country’s prospects of a ratings improvement any time soon.  In its decision S&P retained its negative outlook for the country.

World Bank slashes South Africa’s economic growth outlook

 

The world Bank on Tuesday slashed the country’s economic growth outlook for this year to 0.6%, from 1.1% it forecast earlier in the year, and said that South Africa’s second quarter growth of 2.5 percent would be insufficient to restore positive per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the year.
However, the bank said it expected South Africa’s economic growth for next year to be 1.1 percent, with a growth of 1.7 percent expected in 2019 supported by an improvement in commodity prices and strengthening balance sheets of households.
Paul Noumba Um, World Bank country director, said in an environment, where the national budget was constricted, South Africa could turn to encouraging private innovation as one of the several ways in which to improve the lives of the poor.
“South Africa’s productivity growth is diverging from global growth and the country risks falling further behind its peers. This would be to the detriment of the poor, for whom a growing economy is necessary for jobs, and a sustainable system of social grants,” Noumba Um said.
Last month Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) said South Africa’s weak economic growth, high unemployment, and greater household dependency on credit and policy uncertainty condemned 30.4 million into poverty between 2011 and 2015.
The World Bank report also found that productivity in South Africa fell by 6 percent between 2007 to 2016 and attributed this to insufficient private sector investment in innovation. The report further revealed that the country’s private research and development (R&D) expenditures decreased by about 40 percent since 2009 with lower productivity growth having cost the country 0.7 percent of foregone annual GDP growth since 2008.
Sebastien Dessus, the World Bank program leader, on Tuesday said that South Africa had produced less overtime with the same amount of labour and capital since the global financial crisis.
“Given South Africa’s untapped potential for absorbing and adapting foreign technologies, private R&D can be turned into a more powerful driver of corporate profitability and economic growth.”
“Innovation can help improve the lives of the poor through the provision of better and cheaper goods and services, and expand economic opportunities through the introduction of disruptive technologies that can lower barriers to competition,” Dessus said. In July, the SA  Reserve Bank halved its forecast for 2017 growth to 0.5 percent from a previous forecast of 1.0 percent and the 2018 forecast to 1.2 percent from 1.5 percent. In 2019 the reserve bank said it saw growth of 1.5 percent, down from 1.7 percent it had initially pencilled in.

What to expect in 2018 in SA

 

What to expect in 2018

Nel told MyBroadband there have been a few consolidations in 2017 that will come to fruition next year, and consumers will reap the benefits.
“South Africa is still a tumultuous market for any businesses to operate in, but uncertainty only fuels classifieds from the ground up,” he said.
“A weaker economic outlook and high unemployment creates greater consumer interest and participation in the space, because of the ease of entry and associated cost savings.”
This should see new players enter the market, coupled with increased marketing spend and investment from established businesses.
Nel said Gumtree will also remain true to its goal of helping South Africans trade successfully.
“We’ve been the number one classifieds platform in terms of our size and popularity for a number of years now, but we’ve never taken that for granted.”
“2018 will see a renewed focus on the quality of the user experience, their needs, concerns, and goals.”
The platform will also offer its clients improved advertising services through Gumtree Media.
“South Africa is on the cusp of a new, smarter era of online advertising and Gumtree will lead the charge,” said Nel.

Bumper harvest helps keep economy afloat

 

The South African economy grew by 2,0% in the third quarter of 2017 (seasonally adjusted and annualised), down from a revised 2,8% in the second quarter. Agriculture, mining and manufacturing were the main drivers of the expansion, while there was a contraction in general government services resulting from low employment numbers in the public sector.
After recording an increase of 38,7% in the second quarter, the agriculture industry continued to power ahead, expanding by 44,2% in the third quarter.
This is the largest quarterly jump in agriculture production since the second quarter of 1996. Increased production of field crops and horticultural products were the main contributors to growth, with notable increases in the production of maize and vegetable products.
This season’s maize crop is expected to be the largest on record. The Crop Estimates Committee  have pegged commercial maize production for this season at 16,74 million tonnes, more than double the 7,78 million tonnes produced last year (2015/16), and higher than the current record of 14,66 million tonnes harvested in 1980/81.²
Mining and manufacturing were the other major contributors to economic growth in the third quarter. Increased gold and platinum production saw the mining industry grow by 6,6%, while the 4,3% rise in manufacturing was spurred on by increased production of both petroleum and metal products.
Finance and business grew by 1,2%, helped along by increased activity in financial mediation, insurance and auxiliary services. There was also positive growth in personal services (0,9%) and transport and communication (0,6%).
Four industries, however, saw a decline in economic activity in the third quarter. Falling employment numbers in the public sector saw general government services posting its third consecutive quarter of negative growth, contracting by 0,7%. Other notable industries that saw a decline were trade and electricity, water and gas. Despite a rebound in retail trade sales, falling wholesale trade sales pulled the trade industry down by 0,4%. The electricity, water and gas industry experienced a 5,5% contraction, a result of falling electricity generation and demand.
Other highlights from the third quarter 2017 GDP release:

• Unadjusted real GDP was up by 0,8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2017.
• The South African economy grew by 1,0% in the first nine months of 2017 compared with the first nine months of 2016.
• Nominal GDP in the third quarter was estimated at R1,17 trillion.
• Expenditure on GDP grew by 2,1% in the third quarter, spurred on by a rise in household consumption spending and fixed investment. There was, however, a fall in government consumption spending. Exports were down, but imports were down more, resulting in an improvement in net exports (i.e. exports less imports) and, consequently, a positive contribution to total growth from the external sector.